For years, Iran and Israel have had one of the most hostile relations in Middle Eastern politics, thanks for ideological differences, regional competition and proxy wars. Had we witnessed this war between the two aforesaid superpowers, the extent of the entire Middle East conflagration is inconceivable to imagine. While there is still no direct megacrisis Iranian aggression on Israel today, there are daily confrontations, threats, and hybrid warfare: armed clashes, proxy wars, cyber-attacks, missile shelling.
Background to Iran Hostility towards Israel
The conflict between Iranian Attack on Israel has its origin prior to September 1979, when Iran accomplished a revolution that ensued in the formation of an Islamic Republic that has a fundamentalist diplomacy that does not recognize Israel. The rulers of Iran, from the founding of the Islamic Republic in 1979 until the death of Ayatollah Ali Khomeini, and afterwards by his successor, Ayatollah Khamenei, have frequently proclaimed their intolerant hatred of Israel and their desire to see it destroyed.
Consequently , Iran poses a direct threat to Israel because it seeks nuclear weapons capabilities and supports militant organizations such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza both of whom are actively in conflict with Israel. The years have seen covert actions and operations, assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists – a job reportedly being done by Israel, cyber war with the notorious Stuxnet virus attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities and proxy military skirmishes.
Current Trends and Emerging Conflicts
Over the years, the aggressive act carry out by Iran in the region, especially through its proxy in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon has posed a great worry for Israel. The Civil War in Syria, and Iranian and Hezbollah militia support for Assad’s government led to Israeli forces and Iranian elements being in direct conflict a number of times.
Thousands of missiles have been fired on Syria by Israel which has attacked Iranian weapons and logistics convoys destined for Hezbollah. Although these operations are described as preventive actions by Israel to ban threats, they have also raised the possibility of more extensive conflict.
Possible Contextual Versions of an Iranian Attack on Israel
While a direct, large-scale Iranian attack on Israel remains improbable in the immediate future due to the devastating consequences it would have for both countries, there are several ways that hostilities could escalate:
- Missile Attacks: Currently, Iran possesses a large number of ballistic missiles, and if it attacked, it could destroy Israeli military installations or provisions, Israeli cities or critical facilities. This could be following Israeli’s air strikes on Iranian allies in Syria or its assaults on the Iranian nuclear capabilities. Israel has operational Iron Dome missile defense system that is highly efficient; still they might face a problem, if they are hit by a massive volley of missiles along with it expected attacks from Hezbollah or Hamas.
- Proxy Warfare: Iran could escalate support to its regional friends and hirelings and Hezbollah is known to have more than a hundred thousand rockets targeted at Israel. A simultaneous missile war from Lebanon, Syria and Gaza would put too much pressure on Israel’s defensive forces and could possibly result into a big war front of three fronts.
- Cyberattacks: Iran has shown that it can carry out cyber operations – and targets in Israel often find themselves in the crosshairs. Using cyberspace operations, state actors could shutdown critical infrastructure in Israel – energy, transportation, or health care sectors and much more without necessarily resorting to war.
- Terrorism: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its Quds Force could perpetrate or direct terrorist operations within Israel or against Israeli targets in the global parameters, which would raise tensions even more.
Local and International Implications of Possible Iranian Assault on Israel
The day that Iran launched direct aggression against Israel would mean the beginning of a regional war that would certainly have repercussions around the world. Due to this the key regional players such as Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, the other gulf states which consider Iran as a main foe may well get dragged into the conflict possibly in the Sunni- Shia conflict lines. These countries that not long ago have made shifts to approach Israel friendly would most probably back up its reactions to an Iranian Attack on Israel, either openly or secretly.
Furthermore, if the Iranian forces are large-scale, the United States of America that supports Israel and has a special relation with it as well as significant influence in geopolitics of the Middle Eastern states would naturally interfere. America has always tried to check Iran from expanding its influence in the Middle East and would be compelled to aid Israel, that might lead to open confrontation between American and Iran armed forces. Such situation may trigger widespread instability in the whole region, affect oil markets significantly, and attract such countries as Russia and China to the conflict, which will make the situation even worse.
Diplomatic Process and the Contribution Made by International Actors
The peace process between Iran and Israel has been active, though encountering many difficulties after some time. The Iran nuclear deal also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was another attempt to reign in Iran’s nuclear program in return for the lifting of sanctions. Yet after the US withdrawal from the agreement in the summer of 2018 and Iran’s violations of the deal, the chances for finding a non-violent solution are less likely.
Conclusion
An Iranian attack on Israel, be it a conventional military, through its proxies or through a cyber-terrorism effort would go a long way in defining the security of the region and the wider world. Nevertheless, the full-fledged armed confrontation remains an un Tit for tat: Keeping tensions and hostility alive in any form and in any key, while an open war is a horrible scenario with the possibility of re-scenariozing the entire geopolitical landscape.
Such escalation, it seems, will best be managed through diplomacy and international pressure; however, as long as the ideological and security divide remained so entrenched, the possibility of a conflict remains averted.